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 #BPCL Above 411

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 The S&P BSE 100 index will see a dynamic shift as seven counters, including #YesBank #tvsmotor #IDFCFIRSTBank and others, will join the index while #bandhanbank #ACC #voltas and four other stocks are slated to make their exit.

On November 17, Asia Index Private, a partnership between S&P Dow Jones Indices and BSE, announced the reconstitution results of several BSE indices, including S&P BSE 100, S&P BSE SENSEX 50, and S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50. The changes will be made effective at the open of Monday, December 18.

#TataElxsi #AdaniPower #voltas #bandhanbank #Mphasis #CromptonGreavesConsumerElectricals and #ACC are to be dropped from the index. #tvsmotor #Hindustan #Aeronautics #PowerFinanceCorp #YesBank #APLApolloTubes #persistent #Systems and #IDFCFIRSTBank will replace the counters on the S&P BSE 100 index.

 Market Close:

Benchmark indices ended lower for the second consecutive session on November 20 with Nifty around 19,700.

At close, the Sensex was down 139.58 points or 0.21 percent at 65,655.15, and the Nifty was down 37.80 points or 0.19 percent at 19,694. About 1784 shares advanced, 1864 shares declined, and 146 shares unchanged.

Top losers on the Nifty included #AdaniEnterprises #M&M, #Bajajfinance #SBILifeInsurance and #Ultratech while gainers were #DIVIS #BhartiAirtel #HCLTech #Wipro and #ongc .

On the sectoral front, Information Technology index up 0.6 percent and healthcare index up 0.3 percent, while selling is seen in the metal, auto, capital goods, FMCG, realty names.

BSE midcap index ended flat, while smallcap index rose 0.4 percent.

 State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) shares have witnessed an uptick recently on account of a sharp fall in crude oil prices.

On November 20, shares of OMCs, including Indian Oil Corporation Limited #IOCL Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited #BPCL and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited #HPCL, surged 14.40 percent, 13 percent, and 22.5 percent, respectively, from Oct 20.

Crude oil prices have dipped in November and are currently trading around $80 per barrel - marking a sharp decline from $90 a barrel seen in last month. Prices cooled from the October levels due to demand worries and as the war in West Asia has not had a significant impact on the oil market.

“…Optimism on OMCs will be contingent on crude sustaining below ~USD 80/bbl with OMCs’ FY24 P/B valuations (at ~0.9x for HPCL/IOCL and 1.1x for BPCL) being only 10% discount to historical average after recent rally. At spot Brent price and actual product cracks, OMCs’ gross auto-fuel marketing margin has jumped to +INR 7.9/ltr (vs. historical margin of +INR 3.5/ltr) and gross auto-fuel integrated margin to +INR 16.8/ltr (vs. historical margin of +INR 11.3/ltr),” said JM Financial in a report.

 Concentrate On These Stocks Now, If You Have...

#reliance

#gmrinfra

#Dabur

#BandhanBank

#bankbaroda

#NTPC

#BPCL

#IndiaCem

#L&TFH

#GujGasLtd

Read Carefully

While India's growth momentum will continue to gather pace in 2024, riding high on sustained domestic demand and resilient capital expenditure, a likely shallow rate cut cycle from the Reserve Bank of India and the impending general elections still demand some caution, believes Morgan Stanley.

After emerging as an oasis of strong economic growth even in the face of a global slowdown in 2023 yet again, Morgan Stanley's optimism for India's rise remains high. The foreign brokerage forecasts India's growth to sustain at robust levels of 6.4 percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025.

The risks

As global economies remain in a jeopardy amidst geopolitical issues, high inflation and elevated crude prices, Morgan Stanley expects the RBI to exhibit caution and keep interest rates steady until the first half of 2024. This will be done in a bid to cushion the economy from any potential external risks.

Risks pertaining to a delayed start to the rate cutting cycle could also emerge from higher commodity prices (especially oil) pushing up inflation or tighter global financial conditions weighing on the currency and adversely impacting macro stability. In such tumultuous times, the RBI will also actively use liquidity management as a policy lever, to ensure price and financial stability, Morgan Stanley believes.

While the tightened grip on interest rates may bode well for economic growth in the longer run, it will continue to keep credit costs higher, making it difficult for companies to raise capital.

Another key risk is the impending general elections in May 2024, where the mandate will be a crucial factor in charting out India's future growth trajectory.

"Any surprise outcome is likely to have implications for growth and macro stability. A strong political mandate that supports reform measures alongside an improvement in external demand would drive faster growth," Morgan Stanley highlighted.

On that account, Morgan Stanley sees a delay in the capex cycle from weaker business confidence because of a surprise political outcome or a drag from the external environment as the major downside scenario to India's growth in the coming years.

Strong macros balance risks

Despite some risks in the way, India's strong fundamental standing has evoked optimism over the country's path to economic outperformance in the coming time. These resilient macroeconomic indicators also evoke confidence of the economy mitigating much of the risks.

Backing the resilient growth expectations is the robust domestic demand trend, which is fueled by strength in the corporate and financial sector balance sheets and the follow-through of policy reform measures. "We expect consumption to recover further in 2024, driven by the narrowing gap between rural and urban demand and strength in services demand," the firm stated in its report.

Meanwhile, a recovery in rural consumption is expected to be driven by improving trends in real rural wages. In addition, double-digit growth in public sector capex on the back of central and state government spending, mingled with further pick-up in private investment will act as building blocks to India's growth story in 2024.

 #BPCL Really Rocked ..

Now Trading Above 400

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